Domestic shipments reached a monthly high for the second time this year at 65.6 million pounds, up 1% from last month and 19% from last year.

At the current pace, shipments are set to reduce the carryout to below 500 million pounds, with many processors withdrawing from the market for most sizes and good grades. Almond market prices have continued to rise over the past two months due to increased shipment numbers and a lower than expected carryover

Crop Almond deliveries have been delayed, due to a number of factors: 

1. The extremely dry harvest conditions led to higher levels of chipping and scratching, making extra supreme grades very difficult to produce.
2. There is very high export demand for inshell almonds and small-sized kernels.
3. The record-sized crop has resulted in a shortage of larger-sized almonds (18/20 and 20/22).
4. Strong demand for smaller sizes in the export market persists due to a global supply shortage.

The official crop estimate from the agriculture chamber of Malatya, estimates the 2024 crop at 107.517mt.

Recent crop reports indicate some damage from rain during the flowering period and frost damage on March 23-24 in certain growing regions. The hot weather is expected to cause early ripening, with the harvest anticipated to begin at the end of June and shipments starting in August.

Recently, there has been an increase in offers from Bolivia and Peru, along with some re-sellers entering the market to capitalize on the significant price surge since the opening. So far this has not seen any reduction in prices but has definitely steadied the market

The Ivory Coast export ban announced on 6 May created further supply uncertainty in an already firming market due to the reduced 2024 crop supplies in Vietnam and India and Ivory Coast. 

The anticipated supply shortages have contributed to the rapid price increases.

Fortunately, the ban was partially lifted last week, allowing 135,000mt of RCN (inshell) to be shipped to both Vietnam and India under special conditions. As a result, prices have eased over the past few days by approximately US$0.30/lb or A$1.00/kg.

We haven’t experienced such disruptive supply issues in the cashew market since 2008. While we hope that the export ban will be lifted for additional quantities, which could further ease prices, nothing is certain at this time.

Despite the increase in global production in 2024 compared to 2023, kernel prices are significantly higher this season. The primary reason is the continued strong demand from China for inshell and kernels.

Ongoing rain and floods in North NSW have hampered collection, resulting in longer drying times and processing delays. The higher moisture levels have also led to fewer breakages, resulting in more whole nuts and reduced yields of piece grades.

With the 2024 crop harvest just 6-8 weeks away, prices for the current crop have eased slightly due to the anticipated increase in supply. The first shipments of the new crop are expected in late September. There is still enough of the current crop to ensure a seamless transition to the new harvest, despite the 60-75 day voyage times to Australia.

Continued low domestic demand in China has kept prices on the lower end of recent high levels, now stabilizing with a softer undertone due to forecasts of a larger 2024 crop. Current prices vary among suppliers, and we are still seeing some Chinese processors defaulting or forcing price re-negotiations with their export customers.