Trumps Market Update | August

Australian Almonds:  The 2023 Australian almond crop hasn’t reached the pre-season expectations. 

The harvest is finished and the crop receipts are at 108.000mt kernel basis which is 30% down. It was a very large drop in yields for the industry. It left the growers suggesting a range of contributing factors: poor pollination weather, a shortage of beehives in Victoria orchards, poor quality water, and unfavourable weather throughout the growing season.

The Hazelnut  producers in Ordu, a major producing region in Turkey, have evaluated the recently announced prices for hazelnuts. The prices were set at USD 3.10/Kg (TRY 84/Kg) for Giresun quality hazelnuts and USD 3.05/Kg (TRY 82.5/Kg) for levant quality hazelnuts. The long term impact of the TMO announcement remains to be seen. As it is still unclear how much the TMO will purchase and what payment terms they will offer to growers, between 750.000 to 800.000 metric tons are estimated for the current crop.

Healthy 2023 crop has been affected by the rain and by the earthquake that struck Malatya in January; the excessive moisture caused Monilia disease in apricot trees. Due to this issue, the pollination of flowers decreased, and fruit formation are reduced. If the quality and shortage issues prove true, this will likely to lead to even higher prices for apricots in the next months, organic apricots will also be in short supply.

The demand is expected to return with markets covering from Christmas to 2024 as prices are at their lowest point of the year.  In Europe, stock levels are low and with attractive prices. The market is expecting prices to increase, as demand returns. It is a good time to cover your cashews needs. This market does not have any downside.  

The harvest of the 2023 crop is completed. The crop obtained is a little lower than expected and the in-shell/kernel sizes are slightly smaller, however, yields and quality have been excellent.

Brazil nuts export from origin countries have been 30% lower compared to the previous year. Despite the early season low prices, demand is lower than expected but still strong enough to have driven prices up some US $0.50 – 0.60 per lb. due to the reduced supply.

Prices and availability are now in a tight situation with the top 3-4 shippers all sold out.

The global macadamia market, valued at USD 1.52 billion in 2022, is projected to reach USD 3.70 billion by 2032. Multiple factors have seen prices rise over the past month. Firstly, the strong Inshell sales to China have soaked up much of the expected large world supply.

In second place, the Australian crop has been downgraded significantly, due to lower- than-expected yields and many growers either did not harvest or reduced the number of harvest runs.

And finally, lower kernel prices have seen an increase in sales. While the quality of the macadamias remains good with a decreasing number of rejects, the nuts are smaller this year, and the overall yield of kernels has also declined. The AMS has revised the 2023 forecast of the Australian macadamia harvest, lowering it by 11% to 53.16 thousand tons in a shell at 3.5% moisture content and 57 thousand tons in a shell at 10% moisture content.