Trumps Market Update | July

USA Almonds: After the recent jump in prices due to the initial lower 2023 crop forecast. The 2023 Almond subjective estimate was announced at 2.5 billion pounds, higher than the market expected because the weather conditions were the worst in 20 years. In April, California reported 197 million lbs of shipments, 19.6% lower compared to this time last year. Domestic American shipments are down 9% for the month and down 6% for the year. As a result, prices in the US have eased.

Australian Almonds: The 2023 Australian Almond crop doesn’t look as the expectations and looks set to be down by up to 25%. This is due to various factors such as poor pollination weather, poor quality water during flooding, and unfavourable weather throughout the growing season. Most processors are well-sold.

The supply situation looks good, the crop looks very healthy, with a potential to be over 800K. Furthermore, the reduced shipments would point to the origin prices coming down closer to the new crop in September. As long as mother nature plays her part. Prices have softened in the past week – 10 days. We expect the TMO may be less aggressive in their purchases this season.

USA Walnuts: Total USA May shipments were a record – up 23.1% Vs May 2022, with domestic up 95.4%. Also, India has announced the elimination of the 20% retaliatory tariff on USA tree nuts.

Australian Walnuts: Crop is close to a disaster. Trumps will receive only a small portion of the volume we normally receive and, on some lines, we will not receive any stock. We have imported Walnuts to offer as a substitute, until next season.

Healthy 2023 crop has been affected by the rain and by the earthquake that struck Malatya in January; the excessive moisture caused Monilia disease in apricot trees. Due to this issue, the pollination of flowers decreased, and fruit formation are reduced. If the quality and shortage issues prove true, this will likely to lead to even higher prices for apricots in the next months, organic apricots will also be in short supply.

Limited quantity remaining unsold and small size figs are short. It is too early to know about the new crop hopefully, the weather is better for Apricots and Hazelnuts. More will be know in August and September closer to harvest time.

Priced has been steady last month and remains low in US $ terms and is unlikely to go lower this season. Chinese New crop is in October so this will not arrive until late November/ early December.

The Pecan harvest in 2023 is as expected. The crop was affected by weather this year and last years floods. New crop Australian Pecans are expected from July.

The raw material was affected by the heavy rain in the jungle. But finally, the collection of raw materials is finished and is in the warehouses at various collection points in the jungle.

Some processors are off the market and others holding their prices. The total collected is less volume than expected, and origin prices are starting to move up. The short crop expectations were confirmed at the INC conference.

The pistachio bloom has progressed in very good conditions. Growers said they have never seen such a good bloom. If everything goes well, California could be set to see a new record crop. Although, there is a risk of flooding in low-lying areas. New crop USA is expected to be 7 to 10 days later than usual and therefore may not arrive until early December.