Trumps Market Update | March

USA:

January shipments set a new record being up 29.6% vs January 2022. This is due to US growers having less difficulty with shipments along with high demand from lower prices. The heavy rain & snowfall which we spoke of in the February Market Update seems to be having a positive effect however, we can not be sure of the outcome of the crop. The weather change is still welcome relief to growers who had been struggling with a major drought.

Australia:

The 2023 harvest is commencing with the Nonpareil variety and trickling down to the Carmel, Monetary & Price varieties. Growers are hoping for dry weather to assist with an efficient harvest. 

Summary:

• Wet weather in the US offers a positive outlook however we are still unsure of the drought’s effect.
• Australian harvest is commencing & hoping for dry weather.

Brazilnut gatherers are reluctant to travel further into the jungle this season due to new crop prices being offered lower than last season. This is obviously resulting in lower volume. Everyone is watching the market in an endeavour to understand what will happen to pricing.

Summary:

• Gatherers are reluctant to acquire more volume due to lower prices being offered.
• Everyone is watching the market to understand how this will impact pricing.

Late rain has impacted the Vietnamese and Cambodian crop. Even with this, worldwide volume is forecasted to be similar to 2022. New crop offers are commencing and will arrive in Australia around April.

Summary:

• Worldwide volume will be similar to 2022.
• New crop arrives in Australia in April.

After some firming in Hazelnut prices, (mostly due to the Turkish President’s assistance) the TMO has surprised the market with a release of some 2021/22 stock at a cheaper price. As mentioned in our last market update, the Turkish President is attempting to gain the support of the farmer’s vote leading into the May election. Reports are he even may delay the election until a more opportune time. However, this can be a justifiable delay due to the effects of the recent earthquake. 

Summary: 

• TMO has surprised the market with the release of cheaper stock 
• Turkish President may hold up the election

Due to challenging times in the macadamia industry, please be careful of very cheap pricing as some of this stock may be old. Be sure to trust respected suppliers such as Trumps.

Summary:

• Be sure to purchase from a reputable seller during this difficult time for the macadamia industry

Californian Walnut supply is 30% over initial estimates. However, light and extra light walnuts are low in stock. The Chinese crop also delivered a higher-than-expected volume. Due to this walnut prices are soft.

Summary:

• High stock level in the market
• Attractive pricing remains

The earthquake in Turkey has impacted the apricot growing and processing areas along with the shipping port in Malatya. Almost all factories, shops and government offices are only now slowly starting to re-open. It is difficult to know how this will affect lead times on shipments of apricots.

We send our thoughts to those affected by the earthquake in Turkey and Syria.

Summary: 

• The earthquake in Turkey has affected the dried apricot growing, processing and shipment facilities in Malatya
• Lead times on apricot shipments are difficult to forecast

The quality of this crop’s figs has had excellent feedback. Fortunately, the Turkish Fig growing and processing areas along with the Ismir Port had no damage from the earthquakes.

Summary: 

• Reports are this season’s figs are high quality
• Turkish fig production and shipping have not been affected by the earthquakes

Due to the lifting of Chinese COVID restrictions, we have seen Pinenut prices move higher since Chinese New Year. With China’s restrictions now a thing of the past, their local demand for everything has significantly increased. Yunnan prices are still at a very good discount to Cedar prices and remain the
most popular variety.

Summary: 

• Prices are starting to increase due to demand & easing of China COVID restrictions
• Yunnan prices are attractive

Prices of pepitas are starting to firm due to a combination of higher demand and market speculators. Good quality material is getting harder to find, domestic Chinese demand is up and the Chinese currency is stronger against the USD. Demand from Europe remains soft but USA consumption has been up.

Summary: 

• Prices are starting to increase due to demand