Trumps Market Update | November

USA Almonds:  Strong shipments were presented in October, gaining momentum compared to the previous year. Total shipments for the month reached 247 million pounds, marking a 12% increase from the previous month and a 15% increase from the same period last year. The delayed harvest and drying complications has led to higher insect damage and will be another limitation to sellable supply, with some forecasting it as high as 4% of the crop. 

Australian Almonds:  Overall sales volumes are up 11% on the same time last year despite the lower supply this season. Forecasts of a dry summer has growers and processors hoping for a trouble free lead up to harvest which should produce high quality kernel and inshell in much larger volumes to this season.

The weather has been extremely hot and dry in the Amazonia region with rivers completely dry. This normally happens in the second half November/December but the dry spell has been longer and severe than usual.

Due to shut in factories for longer period than usual, collectors are ready and eager to collect, even though no final prices have been agreed with the processors. Supplies are getting very tight from origin for the current season Brazilnuts, particularly Organic. Prices are steady at the season’s high.

Prices have softened further but with Ramadan early in 2024, prices will not drop in US$ terms any further in the near future.

A large part of the crop was lost due to rain during the harvest, this has seen raw material prices rise and export prices increase by around 20% on top grades.  Demand is up, as figs are seen as a replacement for Apricots in many applications this season.

W320 Cashews prices remain stable in US dollar terms, larger sized Cashews (W180 &W210) continue to firm. This is due to reduced supplies as the Guinea Bissau and other African raw materials generally do not contain large size nuts, and the ongoing high demand from China and Middle Eastern buyers.

Vietnamese cashew exports for October were up 48% over October. January- October exports are up 21%.

Goji berries prices has remained stable over the month, while organic have risen.   Long term prices are expected to trend higher, due to an ongoing trend of reduced plantings due to low returns. Goji plants typically take 2-3 years to produce their first crop and 6-9 years to reach high yields.

USA October shipments were a record month – up 36% on the same period last year at 128.787 million lbs., with domestic shipments up 16% and exports up 43%. November and December shipments are already pretty full, especially for roasted salted product, as processors struggle under the sear volume of nuts.

The market will remain stable in the near term, while current sales are shipped but there is still a record crop to ship, so this is market that will need to be monitored closely.

Despite the large Iranian and Turkish crops, prices remain well above USA prices and with a large Australian crop due in March/ April, sales have been slow. Still, the Iranian Kernels are superior in flavour and cooking suitability to the USA product and Australian 2024 crop kernels will not be available until second half 2024.

The crop is now expected to be 1.40 to 1.5 billion pounds. Total October shipments were up 19.3% vs PY with October domestic up 18.3% and October exports up 20.1%. Shipments to Australia were up 64%, likely partly due to the much smaller Australian crop.

Crops receipts as at 31st October were 689.547 tons. The chandler quality is reported as excellent and the best quality in 10+ years. Despite good shipment figures thus far, prices have softened over the past couple of weeks, as shippers push to move stock to make room for even more stock.